Sea Ice Forecasting Workshop - September 2011
Introduction
The NOAA Arctic Vision and Strategy document (February 2011) contains six focused goals for near-term action. One of these is to “forecast sea ice”, with the objective that “accurate, quantitative, daily forecasts to decadal predictions of sea ice are provided to support safe operations and ecosystem stewardship”.This will be important because continued rapid loss of sea ice will be a major driver of large changes across the Arctic.
The most recent projections show that the Arctic Ocean could be nearly ice-free in summer before mid-century, affecting marine access, regional weather, ecosystem structure and coastal communities. Improved sea ice forecasts at various scales are needed to reduce risk and improve social and economic decision-making. Improved forecasts will require regular observation of Arctic atmosphere and ocean states, circulation and sea ice characteristics; understanding of the interactions among clouds, radiation, and aerosols; and development of improved coupled atmosphere-ice-ocean models.
Workshop on Sea Ice Analysis and Forecasting
September 19-21, 2011, Anchorage, Alaska
- Arctic Cap Nowcast/Forecast System - Rick Allard, Pam Posey, Joe Metzger, Alan Wallcraft, David Hebert, Ruth Preller- Naval Research Laboratory; O. M. Smedstad – QinetiQ North America; M.W. Phelps – Jacobs Engineering
- National / Naval Ice Center (NIC) - Christopher Szorc, Senior Ice Analyst/Forecaster
- Overview of Ice Modelling Projects - Tom Carrieres, Canadian Ice Service
- Products and Services at the Canadian Ice Service - Darlene Langlois, Canadian Ice Service
- NWS Alaska Sea Ice Program - Kathleen Cole, Sea Ice Program Leader, National Weather Service, Anchorage, Alaska [PPT format, didn't convert properly to PDF]
- Sea Ice Damage Kotzebue May 2011
- NWS Alaska Region Satellite Data Capture System
- Sea Ice Outlook - Jim Overland, NOAA PMEL
- Numerical Ensemble Seasonal Forecast of Arctic Sea Ice - Jinlun Zhang, PSC/APL/UW
- Seasonal Prediction Algorithms: Statistical Methods in Seasonal Sea Ice Forecasting - Adrienne Tivy
- Seasonal sea ice forecast from NCEP CFSv2 - Wanqui Wang, NCEP
- Charting a new seasonal outlook for the National Ice Center (NIC) - Todd Arbetter, Pablo Clemente-Cólon, Sean Helfrich, Christopher Szorc, Ignatius Rigor, Son Nghiem
- Presentation for International Arctic Buoy Programme: Buoys and NSIDC Ice Concentration & associated Arctic Domain Awareness Video YouTube video (or as .mov movie) - Ignatius Rigor
- Sea Ice in the NCEP Forecast System - Xingren Wu, EMC/NCEP and IMSG, and Robert Grumbine EMC/NCEP
- Synergies & Collaboration with SEARCH - Hajo Eicken, Chair, SEARCH Science Steering Committee
- Sea ice predictability: Interannual to decadal, John Walsh, International Arctic Research Center University of Alaska, Fairbanks
- Reduction of Uncertainties in Arctic Sea Ice Prediction: From Decadal to Century Scales Through Climate Sensitivity Constraint - Xiangdong Zhang, International Arctic Research Center, University of Alaska Fairbanks