Arctic Report Card - Updated for 2011
December 1 , 2011

A major conclusion of the 2011 update to the Arctic Report Card is that there are now a sufficient number of years of observational data to indicate a shift in the Arctic Ocean system since 2006.

Persistent warming and record-setting changes are occurring throughout the Arctic environment with resultant impacts on Arctic ecosystems.

The 2011 Arctic Report Card update includes 23 essays encompassing the Arctic atmosphere, sea ice, ocean and land and the marine and terrestrial ecosystems.

New! Click to animate Healy images on YouTube.

Arctic sea ice thinning
Alfred Wegener Institute
National Ice Center
October 17, 2011

Researchers from Alfred Wegener Institute (AWI) report that the proportion of old, thick sea ice in the central Arctic has declined significantly. Instead, the ice cover now largely consists of thin, one-year-old floes. The changes in Arctic sea ice were observed during the latest Arctic expedition of the AWI research icebreaker Polarstern.

There was no sign of ice formation seen anywhere in the Laptev Sea in Sept 2011, whereas in Sept 2007, the Polarstern encountered thin, newly formed ice. The sun warmed the upper layers of the ice-free water so that at a depth of 32 feet the temperature was 37° Farenheit.

Results from late summer Arctic expedition of the US Coast Guard Cutter Healy, reported by Dr. Pablo Clemente-Colón, Chief Scientist from the National Ice Center, confirm the relative high presence of first- and second-year ice versus multi-year ice in the pack.

Figure captions:
The AWI research icebreaker Polarstern (top left) at the North Pole. (Credit: Alfred Wegener Institute)

Image from the aloft webcam on the US CGC Healy (bottom left) at 88°N on Sept 1, 2011 (Hourly images from the Healy are provided by Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory)

A recent NOAA workshop focused on identifying the most critical next steps for improving the state of sea ice analysis and forecasting.

Outcomes of this workshop will form the basis for an implementation plan to address the NOAA Arctic Vision and Strategy goal to forecast sea ice by identifying the most useful actions that could be taken by NOAA over the next few years to improve its internal sea ice forecasting capability. The overarching NOAA goal is “accurate, quantitative, daily forecasts to decadal predictions of sea ice ... to support safe operations and ecosystem stewardship”.

This will be important because continued rapid loss of sea ice will be a major driver of large changes across the Arctic.

The NOAA-organized Sea Ice Forecasting Workshop was held in Anchorage AK, September 19-21, 2011.

The University of Bremen reports that Arctic Sea ice extent reached a new historic minimum of 4.24 million km² on Sept 8, 2011, below the previous record low of 4.267 million km² on Sept 16, 2007.

The National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC), using different satellite sensors and analyses, reports that on Sept 9, 2011, sea ice appeared to have reached its lowest extent for the year at 4.33 million km², a very close second to the 2007 record low. A more detailed analysis will follow in early October.

Both the Northwest Passage and the Northern Sea route appear to be open.

Figure captions:
The University of Bremen daily sea ice maps (top left) are based on the high-resolution observations of the Japanese Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer-Earth Observing System (AMSR-E) data. (latest graph)

The NSIDC Sea Ice Index (bottom left) is based on the data set, Near-Real-Time DMSP SSM/I Daily Polar Gridded Sea Ice Concentrations, and the NASA-produced Sea Ice Concentrations from Nimbus-7 SMMR and DMSP SSM/I Passive Microwave Data. (latest graph)

The National Snow and Ice Data Center reports that the average Arctic sea ice extent for July 2011 was the lowest for July in the satellite data record. Ice loss slowed in late July-early August, but Arctic sea ice continues to become thinner and is now declining at a brisk pace.

Further Arctic sea ice loss during the last month of the summer ice-melt season will depend mostly on weather patterns.

With 21 contributors, the August Arctic Sea Ice Outlook projects a September 2011 pan-arctic sea extent median value of 4.6 million square kilometers, below all values seen prior to 2007.

The National Snow and Ice Data Center reports that the average Arctic sea ice extent for July 2011 was the lowest for July in the satellite data record. Ice loss slowed towards the end of July as changing Arctic pressure systems brought cooler conditions and likely pushed the ice apart into a thinner but more extensive ice cover. (see video of sea ice loss)

Shipping routes in the Arctic have less ice than usual for this time of year, and new data indicate that more of the Arctic's store of its oldest ice disappeared.

With 21 contributors, the August Arctic Sea Ice Outlook projects a September 2011 pan-arctic sea extent median value of 4.6 million square kilometers, below all values seen prior to 2007.

Will the Arctic's floating cover of sea ice pass a critical threshold, or tipping point, beyond which a rapid, irreversible slide occurs to a seasonally ice-free Arctic Ocean?

Simulations of twenty-first-century climate suggest that the ice can recover from artificially imposed ice-free summer conditions within a couple of years.

The National Snow and Ice Data Center reports that Arctic sea ice extent declined at a rapid pace through the first half of July, and is now tracking below the year 2007, which saw the record minimum September extent.

As of July 17, 2011, Arctic sea ice extent was 7.56 million square kilometers, 2.24 million square kilometers below the average for the years 1979 to 2000.

It is not yet clear if the ice will hit a new record low this September. But whether or not the ice extent sets another record, Arctic sea ice is continuing its long-term decline, a trend that researchers say is related to warming temperatures in the Arctic.

With 16 contributors, the July Outlook projects a September 2011 pan-arctic sea extent median value of 4.6 million square kilometers, compared to observed September values of 4.7 in 2008, 5.4 in 2009, and 4.9 in 2010.

The SEARCH Sea Ice Outlook is an international effort to provide a community-wide summary of the Arctic sea ice anticipated for September, when it is at a minimumat the end of the summer.

The intent is not to issue predictions but to summarize available information on the evolution of Arctic sea ice.

The Icelights website answers questions about Ice & climate. Recent posts address issues such as Sea ice and the Arctic Coast, When will the Arctic lose its sea ice, and Arctic sea ice and US weather.

Icelights is researched, written, and produced at the National Snow and Ice Data Center at the University of Colorado at Boulder.

Remotely operated aircraft measure Arctic soot
June 17, 2011

Small, new, remotely-operated, unmanned aircraft are being flown in the Arctic to measure black soot.

The soot is produced by burning diesel fuel, agricultural fires, forest fires, and wood-burning stoves, and is transported by winds to the Arctic, where it darkens the surface of snow and ice, enhancing melting and solar warming.

For more information, see http://saga.pmel.noaa.gov/ and http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/edd/manta.html

The SEARCH Sea Ice Outlook is an international effort to provide a community-wide summary of the Arctic sea ice anticipated for September, when it is at a minimumat the end of the summer.

The intent is not to issue predictions but to summarize available information on the evolution of Arctic sea ice.

The June Outlook suggests a modest decrease in sea ice extent for summer 2011. With 19 contributors, the June Outlook projects a September 2011 pan-arctic sea extent median value of 4.7 million square kilometers, compared to observed September values of 4.7 in 2008, 5.4 in 2009, and 4.9 in 2010.

Arctic Future Website Updated
June 6, 2011

The Future of Arctic Climate and Global Impacts website has been updated to reflect recent observations and to add results from the Arctic Council's 2011 Snow, Water, Ice and Permafrost in the Arctic (SWIPA) assessment.

For more information, please see the Arctic Future website.