1. Influence of sea ice, oceanographic conditions and prey availability on the timing of fall bowhead whale migration from the Canadian Arctic along the Beaufort Shelf to Barrow and the subsequent whaling success in Beaufort Sea Coastal Communities Ashjian, Okkonen, Maslowski, et al.
The hypothesis of this paper is that bowhead whales “linger” in the Canadian Arctic when prey is plentiful, ice is minimal, and/or ocean temperature is warm. The objective is to identify how environmental conditions (sea ice, hydrography, prey availability) in the Canadian Arctic (Amundsen Gulf and to the west) and on the Beaufort Shelf are associated with bowhead whale distributions on the shelf and the timing of their fall migration.

2. A year in the acoustic world of Western Arctic bowhead whales Clark, Berchok, Blackwell, Hannay Jones, and Stafford
Marine mammals in the Western Arctic experience a highly variable acoustic environment throughout the regions that they inhabit throughout the year. We analyzed data to describe and quantify the acoustic occurrence of bowhead whales, Balaena mysticetus, and the spatial-temporal variability in their acoustic environment for a one year period, summer 2009 to summer 2010, from a widely distributed set of seafloor acoustic recorders (n ≈ 15) along a 2300 km transect. The results map spatial and temporal variability and average noise levels for the acoustic environment encountered by bowhead whales as they occur in the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas during their fall 2009 and spring 2010 migrations. The motivation is to begin exploring linkages between physics, productivity, marine mammal distributions and sound-generating activities over ecologically appropriate scales.

3. Variability in annual persistence, breakup, and formation of sea ice cover in the Pacific Arctic region Frey, et al.
This contribution will focus on recent variability in sea ice cover utilizing the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer - EOS (AMSR-E) time series of brightness temperature data collected from the Aqua satellite platform. These data (spanning from June 2002 through October 2011) provide a relatively high spatial resolution (6.25 km) daily time series of sea ice concentrations throughout the region. Because of the failure of the AMSR-E sensor in October 2011, it is now timely to assess this entire time series for spatial and interannual variability in the annual persistence of sea ice cover, as well as the timing of sea ice breakup and formation. Attention will be focused on comparisons between the latter portion (2007–2011) and the first portion (2002–2006) of this satellite record. Additional insight into sea ice variability and melt across the region would be provided by 18O field measurements collected from multiple cruises over the past decade.

4. Primary production in the Pacific sector of the Arctic Ocean Arrigo, et al.
This paper will be an extension of the recent paper by Arrigo et al. (2011). It will extend the satellite-based time series of primary production presented in that paper to include the years 2010–2012. The differences in production between the 1998–2006 and 2007–2012 time periods will be emphasized and secular trends will be evaluated. The paper will include more in-depth explanations for the observed increase in productivity in recent years than has been done in the past, which focused mostly on changes in sea ice cover. The authors will investigate physical processes that promote increased nutrient transport through Bering Strait, greater shelf-break upwelling, and the possible roles of increased eddy activity and how these processes impact rates of phytoplankton primary production.

5. Arctic sea ice retreat effects on bowhead whale body condition George, Druckenmiller, Laidre
This study will investigate relationships between summertime ice severity and bowhead whale body condition from 1979 to 2011. The authors will examine daily and monthly averaged sea ice concentration from SMMR and SSM/I passive microwave data for the summer months of June through September within different feeding areas in the Beaufort Sea. The paper will also explore the distribution and magnitude of the Mackenzie River outflow plume as an additional metric for feeding potential since it is a major source of nutrients to the Beaufort Sea in summer. Another important question is whether the presumed dependence of bowheads on sea ice might have population level effects as sea ice changes. As a gross assessment of population level effects, the 30-year population rate of increase will be qualitatively examined with respect to sea ice reductions within bowhead habitat.

6. Benthic System Analysis for the SOAR Grebmeier, Bluhm et al.
The proposed synthesis activity and manuscript will evaluate the biological and environmental factors that support a productive benthic prey base to maintain seabird and marine mammal “hotspots” in the northern Bering and Chukchi Seas in the Pacific Arctic.

7. Seasonal and spatial patterns in marine bird and mammal abundance and distribution in the Pacific Arctic: A comparison of biologically important pelagic areas Kuletz, Ferguson, Hurley, and Labunski
This project will describe the broad scale pelagic distribution of marine birds and marine mammals in the North Bering Sea, northeastern Chukchi Sea and Alaskan Beaufort Sea. We will quantitatively examine seasonal patterns in distribution and identify areas with high diversity and high relative abundance. We will integrate existing data from 2006-2012, including aerial surveys for marine mammals and shipboard surveys for seabirds. We will suggest life history and physical mechanisms that contribute to the formation of the identified patterns. The results will provide a foundation for investigations into the mechanisms driving seasonal patterns of occurrence and formation of pelagic “hot spots” for upper trophic level species in the Pacific Arctic.

8. Effects of prey dispersion, sea ice, and walrus foraging on viability of an essential migration corridor for threatened sea ducks Lovvorn, Hollmen, et al.
This study will integrate available data and models to: 1) Identify the current location and extent of viable feeding areas for Threatened eider species in the nearshore zone (10–30 m) of the eastern Chukchi Sea; and 2) Project the ability of these areas to meet the energy needs of eiders under varying ice conditions (access to the bottom) and changing benthic disturbance by walruses.

9. An Ocean Acidification Sensitivity Index for the Pacific Arctic Region Mathis et al.
This project will present an integrative, interdisciplinary synthesis to quantify the potential biological impacts of ocean acidification (OA) in the PAR. This effort will synthesize recent and historical datasets to create an OA sensitivity index (OASI) for the northern Bering Sea, the Bering Strait, the Barrow Canyon region, the western Chukchi shelf, the Beaufort shelf, and the deep Canada Basin.

10. Fish of the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas: community structure, human use, and mechanisms determining similarities and differences (aka A Tale of Two Shelves) Napp, Logerwell, et al.
The goal of this project is to describe and compare the structure of the benthic and pelagic fish communities on the narrow Beaufort and broad Chukchi shelves. The authors will also compare and contrast the human use of fish communities in the two ecosystems. They will describe known or hypothetical (proposed) mechanisms driving differences in fish community structure and human use. Finally, they will explore hypotheses for how the systems will respond to climate change and other anthropogenic disturbances given the potential physical and biological mechanisms that structure the fish communities.

11. Causes of Drastic Climate Change for the Pacific Arctic Overland, Woodgate, Maslowski, and Stabeno
There has been a marked shift of major environmental indicators and impacts in the American Arctic over the last five years. This paper will 1) Provide a synthesis of multi-year local and regional wind data, ocean heat content, and ice-albedo feedback processes to quantitatively assess recent Pacific Arctic climate change; and 2) Develop a scenario of recent climate conditions for the Pacific Arctic with an emphasis on cascading processes to oceanographic and biological changes.

12. Mechanisms for enhanced trophic productivity in Barrow Canyon, Chukchi Sea Pickart, Grebmeier, Cooper, et al.
The aims of this study are two-fold. The authors seek first to elucidate the nature of the hotspot with respect to the different trophic levels. In particular, this paper will systematically describe the unique aspects of the canyon, which will help identify potential links between the different components of the ecosystem. Secondly, this study will explore different physical mechanisms – including the distribution of sea-ice – that potentially drive the enhanced trophic activity. The primary focus will be on three processes that appear to provide elevated levels of nutrients to the water column: sustained advection of winter water from the Chukchi shelf, wind-driven upwelling of nutrient-rich water from the basin, and bottom-boundary layer detachment that pumps nutrients upward from the seafloor. The hypothesis is that this combination of processes, in conjunction with the freeze/melt cycle of sea-ice in the canyon, results in a prolonged supply of nutrients throughout the spring, summer, and fall that drives the increased biological activity.

13. Oceanographic and other factors associated with western Arctic bowhead whale “hotspots” Quakenbush, Citta, Okkonen, Maslowski, and Druckenmiller
Satellite tracking of bowhead whales has shown consistent seasonal use of fairly specific areas. The objective of this paper is to combine existing data on areas where bowhead whales congregate consistently with oceanographic and zooplankton data for those areas in order to answer the question: Can bowhead whale seasonal presence and behavior at these locations be explained by oceanographic (i.e., currents, winds, fronts) and other physical processes (i.e., ice conditions) that concentrate zooplankton? In areas where oceanographic and zooplankton data do not exist the authors will use high-resolution numerical circulation models to explore circulatory and hydrographic regimes that promote aggregation of zooplankton prey and thereby allow the prediction of when and where bowheads may concentrate.

14. Oceanographic and other factors associated with bowhead whale movements across the Chukchi Sea in fall Citta, Quakenbush, Okkonen, Maslowski, and Druckenmiller
Satellite tracking of bowhead whales has shown that the fall migratory path across the Chukchi Sea, from Barrow to Kaktovik, varies annually. Year-to-year variation in the migratory paths of bowhead whales are likely influenced by changes in ocean currents and food availability. Sea ice conditions, anthropogenic disturbances (e.g., seismic surveys), and the date whales initially pass west of Point Barrow may also cause shifts in migratory paths. This paper will pursue the development of a mechanistic model that, based on relevant meteorological, oceanographic, cryospheric, and/or acoustic conditions, identifies likely trajectories for bowhead whales crossing the Chukchi Sea. The authors will investigate relationships between the migratory paths of individual whales with sea ice conditions, the timing of seismic activity, winds, and with observed and modeled ocean circulation in the Chukchi Sea. This model will try to predict the paths of satellite tagged whales as they cross the Chukchi Sea. They will then relate model predictions to the actual paths of bowhead whales with satellite tags.

15. Relationship between beluga whales, Arctic cod, and oceanographic conditions in Barrow Canyon and at the shelf break of the western Beaufort Sea Suydam, et al.
Develop a better understanding of how and why beluga whales use Barrow Canyon and the shelf break of the western Beaufort Sea by combining varied data sets including: aerial surveys, satellite tracking and dive data from tagged belugas of the eastern Chukchi Sea, fish trawls, passive acoustic monitoring, and oceanographic conditions.

16. Consequences of the loss of summer ice to seabirds and marine mammals in the Chukchi and Beaufort seas Divoky, Druckenmiller, Lukacs, and Quakenbush
This paper will 1) Determine the trophic response of marine birds and mammals in the Chukchi and Beaufort seas to seasonal and annual variation in ice extent and SST by analysis of dietary data sets obtained historically (<2005) and recently (>2004) in relation to ice extent and SST in the region where the data set was collected; and 2) Determine the effects of seasonal and annual variation in ice extent and SST on marine birds and mammals in the Chukchi and Beaufort seas by analysis of data sets of proxies for prey availability to upper trophic levels (abundance, growth rates, condition, annual survival) in relation to temporal variation in ice extent and SST in the region where the data set was obtained.